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June 28, 2004

Election predictions

Lots of predictions are floating around about what the results of the election will be. I haven't been following the professional pundits and pollsters' thoughts about this very well, but I get the idea that they think the Liberals are within striking range of getting more seats than the Conservatives (though a Conservative win is still more likely). But I don't think so. I think the Tories have definitely got the win, and may even reach a majority.

The Liberal vote is extremely soft. They may answer 'Liberal' to the pollster, but they've been given no better reason for voting for PM Paul than paranoid hysteria about what a party with slightly more common sense will do to some particular sacred cow. In my own personal discussions with people, I haven't come across anyone willing to admit to supporting the Liberals. Some will vote NDP, some Bloc, and most Conservative, but the Liberals have no supporters in my immediate circle of friends. Of course, if there were any, they would no longer be in my immediate circle of friends... (Just kidding.)

But I'm not willing to bet on a majority. Here's my guess -- and I'm only making it to cash in on the worldwide fame and admiration I'll receive if I'm correct:

Conservatives -- 130
Liberals -- 98
NDP -- 26
Bloc -- 54

And in my riding I'm betting on Judy Grant, the Conservative candidate, to take it in a tight three-way race. There's three classes of voters in this riding: anti-Liberal, anti-Bloc, and anti-Conservative. The anti-Liberal is the largest by far, and will give many votes to the Bloc and Tories. But Pontiac is also a Federalist riding and traditionally votes with the winner. We've run a well-financed, well-targeted campaign, and though the local strategy is usually secondary to the national battle, I think we managed to swing a significant number of voters. But we'll see.

I'm going to be at our campaign's party in Chelsea as the results come in. I'm either going having a few to celebrate or drown my sorrows. Should be a fun night.

Update: Colby Cosh has a good roundup of other predictions. I'm at the upper end of the scale, with only Colby himself predicting more Conservative MPs than me. Hmmm.

Posted by Bruce Gottfred at June 28, 2004 10:44 AM | TrackBack
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