Election prediction

It might seem strange for a Canadian to get so worked up about an election in another country, but I have. This year's American Presidential election fascinates me. Every day I check both the national and swing-state polls and read numerous opinion pieces about what the issues and strategies are in different parts of the nation. But like everyone else, I don't know what's going to happen on Tuesday. Bush still seems to be the favourite, but many polls are showing real strength for Kerry. There are many scenarios in which either of them could win.

My feeling is that Bush is doing better than the polls suggest. This election has been dominated by a real bias from the mainstream media, and I think some of that bias has tainted the polls. Whether they have stacked the numbers of Democrats surveyed, or manipulated the definition of a 'likely voter', I believe there is some element of institutional fudging of the data so they see what they want to see.

I also think the reappearance of Osama bin Laden will help Bush. He stated how he would like the election to go, and I don't think Americans are inclined to accomodate him.

Using those assumptions to tranform the present poll data, my view of how the states will go looks like this (using the Opinion Journal Electoral College Calculator):

I'd actually give Bush Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey and Hawaii, but I've been too optimistic before, so I've toned it down a bit. This is a reasonable outcome, and it gives Bush a solid victory, which he'll need in the next four years. Come on, America, don't let me down.

UPDATE: A huge roundup of predictions for the election can be found at Les Jones's Blog.